This paper explores the application of the maturity concept to the residential property market in Nigeria as a developing country. It reviews and appraises the application of the established market maturity framework primarily designed for comparing markets in European countries to such a developing country. The paper adapts the relativity of market maturity measures to develop a checklist of characteristics for assessing the maturity of residential property sub-market in Nigeria property market. While the paper recognizes the place of information in property markets in maturity determination it suggests that in the current situation of the Nigeria residential property market the level of compliance with and implementation of urban planning is the most important criterion for determining the state of market maturity. The paper argues for the enforcement of market regulatory frameworks such as; development control, adequate land spatial infrastructure, land registration to enhance market maturity.

In the era of ecology awareness sustainable development plays a key role. The idea of this movement touches every aspect of our lives, real estate is not different. It is said that in EU buildings are responsible for 40% of total energy consumption. It means that making our buildings more energy efficient is really crucial for climate change. Real estate sector in Poland is aware of those issues and releases the need to reduce its environmental impact.. Nevertheless green building market in Poland suffers lack of proper interest. The most important factor for green buildings market development in Poland is the value of the house which reflects environmental costs and benefits. However real estate appraisal is mainly focused on none environmental issues. It seems that despite widely propagated financial and environmental benefits for green buildings, real estate prices are not influenced by their sustainable characteristics. This study is an attempt to analyze and characterize the most popular real estate appraisal methods in Poland. All of them are closely analyzed to point the level of consideration of environmental friendly issues of the property This can highlight the green features which are the most popular and, on the other hand, the most beneficial to real estate value increase. The research seeks to remedy these problems by analyzing the literature of real estate appraisal methodology, statistic and real estate data published by real estate agencies. Some insights information gathered from real estate agencies and real estate appraisers was also taken. The result of the study indicates that real estate appraisal do not take into consideration the environmental friendly issues implemented in the building. A few factors, such as good isolation or green location, are the ones that can increase the value of the house the highest. This paper is the result of the first part of the research on green factors of the building and their influence on increasing the value of real estate. The research shows the need of changing the real estate appraisal methodology in Poland. Real estate market in Poland is still developing. This study is the first one in the field to point the new directions of development towards green buildings in Poland. The paper shows the lack of motivations for sustainable real estate to be popular, for appraisal methods are not taking into consideration “green” factors of the buildings.

Compared to huge empirical evidence gathered in US and UK, concerning green buildings performance, little has been done to understand the process of adaptation of green perspective towards property investments in less developed countries. On the other hand, as attitudes towards sustainable property of both end users and investors are linked to their environmental awareness itself, institutional support (as USGBC), as well as country specific legislation, it seems rationale to expect that adaptation rates will vary across the world. Stylized facts provide prove that CEE countries lag behind when sustainable property stock is concerned. However the growth rate is acceptable. In the first part of the paper we identify major barriers that slow down the development of strong sustainable property market in Poland. Later, we use qualitative data (gathered from in-depth interviews) to analyze different drivers and barriers for undertaking some sustainable property related projects. Then we explore the results of conjoint experiment, to assess realistically willingness to pay (WTP) for green building certificate.

Changes in the mortgage industry have been swiftly effected over the past few years. Many of the changes have come about as a response to the high level of observed delinquencies and defaults on residential mortgages as house prices plummeted and others have evolved from continuing concerns about the treatment of borrowers during the mortgage origination process. The segmented mortgage industry of the early part of the decade, with loans being originated in the prime, subprime and government mortgage sectors has been largely replaced with a bifurcated system. By year end 2010, the FHA/VA (government sector) combined with the conventional, conforming market share of originations was 90.8 percent. FHA lending standards are governed by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (ìHUDî) while in the conventional, conforming market lending standards are governed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or their conservator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (ìFHFAî). Both the conventional, conforming and FHA loan products can be originated in different channels either through a typical retail channel, or through a wholesale broker channel through brokers or correspondent lenders. In this paper, we examine some of the observed trends and changes in the types and levels of broker compensation that existed before the regulatory change that brought about the implementation of the Federal Reserve Boardís (ìFRBî) new loan officer compensation rule. Among other questions, we examine the variance in broker compensation across geographies, across lenders, across borrower types and across loan products. The intent of this ex post analysis is to provide an understanding of the potential impacts of the declining broker industry on both access to mortgage loans and on the pricing of mortgage originations.

The broad aim of this research is to develop a better understanding of the capital structure practices and processes of European real estate companies. The emphasis is on internal processes and the firmsí rationale for particular decision making behaviour. By capital structure processes and practices, we mean the ways by which firms obtain capital for projects and activities. Broadly, this includes decisions about debt versus equity, use of internally generated capital, decisions about debt maturity profile and seasoned equity issuance. In turn, such decisions affect the required returns for stakeholders: the required cost of equity, the marginal cost of debt, tax impacts, dividend policy; and, again in turn, these feed into required returns discount rates, target rates of return, hurdle rates - for project appraisal. There are, thus, interactions between capital structure decisions and capital budgeting decisions. The primary motivation for the research relates to apparent discontinuities between the capital structure decisions expected from the models of financial theory; observed market practice on capital structure; and the reported decision-making processes and views of market participants. The research is intended to explore any differences in expected, observed and reported practices and to seek to reconcile or explain those differences. A secondary motivation is to explore the extent that market practices and manager attitudes change over the cycle: are property company managers simply reactive or are there defined and consistent strategies that give rise to changes conditional on the market environment?

In this clinical study, we examine the winnerís curse hypothesis that rational agents, in an auction setting, will impute an inverse relation between bids and price uncertainty and between bids and the level of competition. To accomplish same, we avail of a unique data set of 548 successful real estate common value auctions with incomplete information during the period October 2004 to November 2005. A failure to incorporate conditional information price uncertainty and competition into bidding may invite a winnerís curse. This follows as the range of estimated prices (and the winning bid) tends to grow, relative to the mean estimate of value, with price uncertainty and competition. Winnerís curse arises when the winning bid exceeds the value of the auctioned asset or if the value of the auctioned asset is less than that which is anticipated on the part of the winning bidder. As a result, rational bidders will compensate for prices accordingly by adjusting bids downwards below their ex-ante estimate of the value of the asset so-called bid shading. If we infer a positive association between bids and price uncertainty and bids and the level of competition, these findings are indicative of the presence of de facto winnerís curse in our auction data. We adopt a novel methodology to quantify price uncertainty per unit area of residential real estate by constructing portfolios of properties with similar characterising traits, as indicated by hedonic asset pricing models. A propertyís price uncertainty is estimated as the coefficient of variation of the replicating portfolio of which it is a constituent. Our calibration of the level of competition involves count data regarding the number of bids and the number of bidders. Initial findings do indicate a positive relation between bids and the level of competition, in line with the presence of winnerís curse in the observations. Our findings are robust to an extensive set of control variables and model specifications which include a variety of measurements of winning bid price relatives: to the opening bid; the reserve price and the expected auction revenues. Our set of control variables relates to the propertyís location, size, condition and type, whether there was an editorial announcement as well as the gender and experience of the winning bidder with respect to the auctioned property.

This paper uses project level data of land auction prices in Hong Kong. It tests the hypotheses that the land auction price (real option premium) contains three sources of flexibility value: waiting to invest, the effect of direct interactions and the effect of financial structure. The OLS regression results show that the option premium embedded in the land price is not only related to real flexibility choices such as delaying investment as identified in traditional real option theory, but it also increases or decreases with the direct interaction of properties, their competition for firm resources and the firms financial status. Firms with more investment properties located close to the auctioned land and with more internal funds would place a higher value on the land at auction; while more profitable firms and firms with less debt capacity would lower its estimate of option value embedded in the auctioned land prices as reflected in bidding. The interaction effect and financial structure in the firm have been confirmed in the empirical studies to influence the option premium in the land price. These results confirm the link between the project level predictions of real option theory and firm fundamentals.

This paper uses project level data of land auction prices in Hong Kong. It tests the hypotheses that the land auction price (real option premium) contains three sources of flexibility value: waiting to invest, the effect of direct interactions and the effect of financial structure. The OLS regression results show that the option premium embedded in the land price is not only related to real flexibility choices such as delaying investment as identified in traditional real option theory, but it also increases or decreases with the direct interaction of properties, their competition for firm resources and the firms financial status. Firms with more investment properties located close to the auctioned land and with more internal funds would place a higher value on the land at auction; while more profitable firms and firms with less debt capacity would lower its estimate of option value embedded in the auctioned land prices as reflected in bidding. The interaction effect and financial structure in the firm have been confirmed in the empirical studies to influence the option premium in the land price. These results confirm the link between the project level predictions of real option theory and firm fundamentals.

This paper investigates property forecasting accuracy and its improvement. As it suggests, despite increased sophistication of property market modelling and forecasting, there still remains a degree of inaccuracy between model outputs and actual property market performance. Subsequently, the paper presents the principle of combination forecasting as a medium helping to achieve greater predictive accuracy. The research implements combination forecasting principle. It assesses whether combination forecasts from different forecasting techniques are better than single model outputs. It examines which of them - combination or single forecast - fits the UK property market better, and which of these options forecasts best.

As the building and real estate sector is responsible for about 40% of the economyís end energy consumption, its potential to contribute to a sustainable development is accordingly high. In terms of mitigation of climate change, the response of the property sector is expressed by the diffusion of Green Buildings with systematic spatial and temporal dispersion patterns. Considering Green Buildings as a new innovation in the real estate market, it is necessary to analyse the adoption steps in order to identify the drivers of this green development. The question is what leads the actors of the real estate industry to adopt the green innovation in their investment decisions in terms of constructing, renting or investing in Green Buildings. This paper provides evidence of the factors determining the diffusion of Green Buildings in the US market by gathering building specific, economic and behavioural data. In other words, if the chosen model and its assumptions fit positively, the determinants may contribute to identify temporal and spatial effects across several real estate submarkets. The expected drivers are manifold: on the one hand governmental policies and on the other hand latent private interest due to a possible direct pay-off or an increased willingness to pay. Our contribution to research literature is to provide evidence of the market response to previous green policy incentives and delivers a basis for future decisions by policy-makers and investors.

In this paper we investigate the relationship between heating costs and rent in the Austrian rental housing market. More specifically, we test the hypothesis derivable from basic economic considerations that housing units with lower heating costs are more attractive and can therefore generate higher rents. In order to control for other characteristics of the housing units, we use a hedonic price approach including all available information as explanatory variables. The paper extends an earlier analysis for the years 2006 and 2007. In the current paper additionally data for the years 2008 to 2010 are used, allowing for comparison over time. The analysis is important for policy considerations. If the Austrian rental housing market lacks the expected negative relation between heating costs and rent, as our earlier analysis suggests, the market also lacks an incentive for landlords to invest into the energy efficiency of their buildings.

Is there a conflict of interest between households and mortgage intermediaries when originators keep mortgages on their balance sheet? This paper shows that in an originate-to-hold setting, intermediaries are not systematically underwriting mortgages that exceed acceptable underwriting criteria (in terms of loan-to-value and debt-service ratios) once controlled for the originator. Originators have an incentive to monitor the underwriting process, regardless whether an intermediary is involved during origination. If mortgages are insured, than the involvement of intermediaries raises LTV-ratios by 6-7 per cent compared to mortgages directly originated at banks or insurers. It is further found that mortgage underwritten by intermediaries, are more likely to be of a deferred amortization type. Although this is not necessarily an adverse outcome for the household, the combination of deferred amortization debt and increased LTV-ratios is a potential risk for insurers of mortgages.

It may be observed that Turkish mortgage market has experienced a rapid development in recent years thanks to relatively stable macro-economic conditions. It is also important to note that housing market is of comparatively sound during the process of global financial turmoil. But it is obvious that the market is less developed according to several market completeness criteria. In this context, the contribution of the paper is to empirically analyze the factors affecting housing loans in Turkey, assumed as the critical factor of the development of the mortgage market. To employ vector error correction model and granger causality tests, the objective of the paper is to present the findings of dynamic causal relationships between housing loans and macro-economic indicators related to general economy and housing markets in Turkey. In the research, we empirically analyze both impacts of widely used macro-economic indicators (CPI, unemployment ratio, real interest rate, current account, monetary aggregate), and also some additional variables, specifically involving household assets, income, subsidies and also house price index. In addition to other contributions of the paper, longer period house price index constructed by the author by combining actual house price index and a proxy index would be specifically interesting for the current literature.

Spain and Italy represent two of the most important Mediterranean Countries belonging to the European Union. Both Italian and Spanish property market have experienced a sustained period of growth since the mid of the 1990s and until 2008, followed by a rapid decline. Those countries are both facing, since 2008, the credit crunch which strongly hits the property market, and an economic crisis combined with a high rate of unemployment. At the same time, those two nations experienced different reactions to real estate market crisis, showed by a different change in real house price and number of transactions, different housing policies and planning regulations. This paper concerns house market boom and crisis from a supply perspective, and aims to add empirical evidence from those two markets to the literature on housing supply elasticity, as very little cross ìì country empirical evidence exists. Differences in supply responsiveness to prices are very important as they define how the housing market is responding to the variation of the quantity and quality of demand. Supply is also very important for prices volatility, economic stability and private investments in real estate. The paper means to estimate a new supply equation for Italian and Spanish markets, showing how price elasticity changes over different cycles, by means of data as house prices, cost of materials and labours in construction sector, interest rates, and house stocks. A pool EGLS method is used to account for cross-section heterokedasticity with fix effects in order to control space differences. The analysis has been developed at national as well as regional level for both countries, allowing the estimation of the variation in responsiveness of new housing supply to prices. The empirical approach shows differences and similarity in the two markets.

Spain and Italy represent two of the most important Mediterranean Countries belonging to the European Union. Both Italian and Spanish property market have experienced a sustained period of growth since the mid of the 1990s and until 2008, followed by a rapid decline. Those countries are both facing, since 2008, the credit crunch which strongly hits the property market, and an economic crisis combined with a high rate of unemployment. At the same time, those two nations experienced different reactions to real estate market crisis, showed by a different change in real house price and number of transactions, different housing policies and planning regulations. This paper concerns house market boom and crisis from a supply perspective, and aims to add empirical evidence from those two markets to the literature on housing supply elasticity, as very little cross ““ country empirical evidence exists. Differences in supply responsiveness to prices are very important as they define how the housing market is responding to the variation of the quantity and quality of demand. Supply is also very important for prices volatility, economic stability and private investments in real estate. The paper means to estimate a new supply equation for Italian and Spanish markets, showing how price elasticity changes over different cycles, by means of data as house prices, cost of materials and labours in construction sector, interest rates, and house stocks. A pool EGLS method is used to account for cross-section heterokedasticity with fix effects in order to control space differences. The analysis has been developed at national as well as regional level for both countries, allowing the estimation of the variation in responsiveness of new housing supply to prices. The empirical approach shows differences and similarity in the two markets.

This paper looks at the impact of the commuter rail transit (CRT) system that serves the Montreal North Shore area, Quebec, Canada, on the market value of single-family houses located nearby four stations along the Montreal/Saint-JÈrÙme route. The research rests upon a combination of hedonic modelling and spatial analysis methods used to compute a series of spatio-temporal accessibility indices by access mode to CRT (car, bus and on foot). Real estate data come from the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board (GMREB) and include 63,784 properties sold over the study area between 1992 and 2009. The data contain detailed information on sale price, asking price, date and context of sale, dwelling type, property age, building and land attributes, outbuilding attributes as well as on any renovation to the house. Information relative to location, neighbourhood and environmental characteristics of the property is also available. As for information relative to the CRT, it was provided by the Montreal Transit Agency (MTA) and deals with station location, user volumes and trip structure based on 2005 and 2008 on-board surveys. Findings suggest that the implementation of a CRT service on the Montreal North Shore area has a positive, and significant, impact on residential property values which decreases with distance to the nearest station. Thus, on-foot proximity to stations results in an average market premium of 1.5%, 1.3% and 1% for houses located within 500 m, between 500 m and 1 km and between 1 and 1.5 km from a station, respectively. Car accessibility also translates into a significant premium averaging 3.6% of property value, with a maximum of 4.7% for properties that are 9.2 minutes distant from a station. Finally, once spatial autocorrelation effects are accounted for, multi-modal bus trips tend to result, in most cases, in a significant rise in house values estimated at roughly 1% and 1.3% for the regular and slow services, respectively, and for houses located within 10 km from stations. For houses located within 10 and 20 km from a station, the market premium derives from the express bus service and is estimated at 3.8% of value. Such findings suggest that positive externalities from an improved accessibility to the CRT service prevail over negative externalities due to nuisance effects, in spite of the strong motorization that characterizes the Montreal North Shore households.

Work environments are complex and interrelated systems of people, processes and places, where there are no ìone size fits allîù -solutions. In office context the workplace and facilities managers face this complexity when they try to optimize the environments to meet the needs of the organization, employees and the work processes. Technical modifications in the physical environment are one option when developing the open plan office. However, these technical solutions can be expensive and they still do not guarantee a better user experience. A psychosocial approach to open plan offices provides development by focusing on the use of the environment. The aim of this paper is to approach open plan office improvements from a psychosocial perspective and to identify what kind of solutions can be offered by changing the way the environment is used. The research is conducted as a case study in one organization that had gone through an extensive workplace change project two years earlier when the organization moved from a space with private rooms to an open plan office solution. The new work environment was, however, perceived as problematic by the employees. In order to understand the user experiences and to find solutions to the problems, data was collected through both objective technical measurements and a walkthrough audit that was carried out together with users of the open-plan office. The research revealed that the problems could be tackled not only by expensive technical renovations but also by making some spatial modifications and changing the way the environment was used. This indicates that, when aiming for satisfied users, it is important to balance technical solutions and the ways the space is used. The workplace change process is not finished when the new office has been accommodated; adaptation of new ways to use the office is essential and both the physical and psychosocial work environments have to be taken care of. This paper is provides a framework, which incorporates both technical aspects and the use of the space, for understanding the end-user experience in the work environment.

Infrastructure is a wide ranging and essential phenomena for urban civilisation, but it is also the key enabler in the development and regeneration industries. The complexity of major urban development in UK brings about the challenge of integrating infrastructure creation with real estate development. The UK experience has been characterised by a series of strategies in the past where key infrastructure has lagged/dragged programmes of needed real estate development, which on a high proportion of projects, is the paymaster enabling works. Planning mechanisms by way of conditions and agreements is a method of seeking to extract essential infrastructure costs from the developer. More sophisticated and informed approaches to planning agreements are being applied, particularly as sustainability is now a further requirement within the planning agenda. Major sect. 75 agreements such as Kingís Cross and Westfield, Stratford will be evaluated in terms of their effectiveness. Furthermore, the general funding crisis has led to the government and industry seeking other ways of procuring and financing infrastructure. The recent advent of tax increment financing initiative and private infrastructure finance investment vehicles will be explored in terms of its ability to generate key infrastructure. The recent series of TIF confirmations and the linkage to property in terms of overall objectives will be explored. Other mechanisms will be considered such as single estate strategy (Canary Wharf), rates levy (cross rail) and comprehensive public sector funding will also be appraised in terms of their direct cost and benefit provisions with affected real estate and development proposals. The paper will conclude with an indication of UK best practice in delivering real estate through infrastructure innovation.

Infrastructure is a wide ranging and essential phenomena for urban civilisation, but it is also the key enabler in the development and regeneration industries. The complexity of major urban development in UK brings about the challenge of integrating infrastructure creation with real estate development. The UK experience has been characterised by a series of strategies in the past where key infrastructure has lagged/dragged programmes of needed real estate development, which on a high proportion of projects, is the paymaster enabling works. Planning mechanisms by way of conditions and agreements is a method of seeking to extract essential infrastructure costs from the developer. More sophisticated and informed approaches to planning agreements are being applied, particularly as sustainability is now a further requirement within the planning agenda. Major sect. 75 agreements such as King’s Cross and Westfield, Stratford will be evaluated in terms of their effectiveness. Furthermore, the general funding crisis has led to the government and industry seeking other ways of procuring and financing infrastructure. The recent advent of tax increment financing initiative and private infrastructure finance investment vehicles will be explored in terms of its ability to generate key infrastructure. The recent series of TIF confirmations and the linkage to property in terms of overall objectives will be explored. Other mechanisms will be considered such as single estate strategy (Canary Wharf), rates levy (cross rail) and comprehensive public sector funding will also be appraised in terms of their direct cost and benefit provisions with affected real estate and development proposals. The paper will conclude with an indication of UK best practice in delivering real estate through infrastructure innovation.

Most SMEs especially in the developing world are credit constrained which limits their ability to contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. On one hand it is being argued in the literature that this credit constraint is attributable to the lack of collateral resulting from poverty and the lack of valuable assets; on the other hand the lack of collateral is blamed on the absence of registered titles over land which allegedly makes land an unacceptable collateral asset. The aim of this paper is to establish whether or not the absence of registered land titles is a barrier to credit access amongst SMEs. The study involved credit officers and the results amongst other things show that most formal lenders accept landed property for collateral purposes irrespective of whether they are registered or not. The paper concludes that even though land registration is important in facilitating the verification of land ownership, its absence is of no empirical consequence in terms of the availability of credit to SMEs.

Most SMEs especially in the developing world are credit constrained which limits their ability to contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. On one hand it is being argued in the literature that this credit constraint is attributable to the lack of collateral resulting from poverty and the lack of valuable assets; on the other hand the lack of collateral is blamed on the absence of registered titles over land which allegedly makes land an unacceptable collateral asset. The aim of this paper is to establish whether or not the absence of registered land titles is a barrier to credit access amongst SMEs. The study involved credit officers and the results amongst other things show that most formal lenders accept landed property for collateral purposes irrespective of whether they are registered or not. The paper concludes that even though land registration is important in facilitating the verification of land ownership, its absence is of no empirical consequence in terms of the availability of credit to SMEs.

A considerable body of research exists on how office rents and vacancy rates adjust in response to changes in demand and supply. In particular, recent research has settled upon an Error Correction Model (ECM) approach for investigating how adjustment occurs. Some recent studies have applied an ECM approach to panel data, but there remains only limited investigation of the cross sectional variation in such data and what factors drive differences in behaviour between different markets. For this reason, the present paper uses panel data for US office markets and analyses differences in the parameters found for different locations. The data consist of quarterly observations for rents, vacancy rates, employment, stock and completions for office markets in around 60 US MSAs. From this data, two samples are isolated: a set of 18 markets for which all variables are available from 1980 to 2011 and a set of 58 markets where they are available from 1988. Panel estimations are performed and these estimations are followed by further analyses that seek to explain the cross-sectional variation in results using variables that depict the characteristics of locations in terms of their economies and real estate markets.

In the globalization of finance, commercial office real estate investment has come to have an increasing role in the transnational circulation of capital (Knox and Pain 2010). Global city offices used by clustered advanced producer services firms have become key points through which finance flows within and between cities in several ways (Lizieri, 2009). Financial services are corporate real estate occupiers, deeply embedded in global city quarters. They create and manage the investment vehicles that turn physical office infrastructures into liquid assets and through their world-wide city-based office networks, they help to articulate the international flows of finance produced. Thus there are deep and complex interrelations between the physical fabric of global cities, its financial users and city inflows and outflows of capital. City governments have increasingly tried to exploit the opportunities for inward investment that these capital flows present (Brenner and Theodore 2005) but until now there has been a lack of empirical evidence on the dynamics of such flows and how they map onto the ìWorld City Networkîù of financial services (Taylor 2001, 2004). This paper will present new data and analyses from a two-year European Union study mapping the geographies of these city networks and investment flows for the first time, bringing together two complementary theoretical and empirical approaches to the study of financial globalization and helping to inform current questions about the effects of global financial crisis.

The existence of a foreclosure system is a presumption for an efficient mortgage system with high loan-to-values (LTV). Denmark is among the countries with the highest debt among owner-occupiers and other mortgage borrowers. Since 1979 Statistics Denmark has published data on foreclosures, monthly. In this paper, the connections between the owner-occupier risks of owning and borrowing, their capital structure, their interest payments, the shape of the housing market and entire economy, and foreclosure frequencies are drawn out. For the single owner-occupier with negative equity, a foreclosure will be the definite result of coming into arrears. For a society, mass foreclosures appear as a result of correlated risks, when many owners default at the same time. Not only are the frequency of foreclosures multiplied, but the characteristics of the repossessed properties and the families involved seem to change. Since 1979, Denmark has been through nearly three housing market cycles. The first two downturns, 1979-1983, and 1987-1993, resulted in mass foreclosures with more than 10,000 houses and flats being repossessed annually. The price drop from the housing market peak in 2006-7 was twice as fast as in the former housing market downturn but only took 2/3 of that fall, before house prices stabilized in 2009. The number of foreclosures has grown but remains far below the former mass foreclosure level. Obviously the low interest regime from the autumn of 2008 has worked. Moreover the Danish owner-occupiersí interest expenditures had been reduced significantly since 1993. In the meantime, the interest rate risk at mortgage borrowing has changed character. Until around 2000, fixed interest mortgages dominated but now 69% of Danish mortgages are adjustable rate mortgages. Formerly falling interest rates could release foreclosures. The possibility for a new mass foreclosure is worrying, when monetary authorities return to more ënormalí interest rates over the coming years. In addition, half of all outstanding mortgage loans are interest-only mortgages and as their interest-only period lasts 10 years, these borrowers will experience some automatic payment additions from 2013 onwards, and some of them might meet higher interest rates when remortgaging.

The existence of a foreclosure system is a presumption for an efficient mortgage system with high loan-to-values (LTV). Denmark is among the countries with the highest debt among owner-occupiers and other mortgage borrowers. Since 1979 Statistics Denmark has published data on foreclosures, monthly. In this paper, the connections between the owner-occupier risks of owning and borrowing, their capital structure, their interest payments, the shape of the housing market and entire economy, and foreclosure frequencies are drawn out. For the single owner-occupier with negative equity, a foreclosure will be the definite result of coming into arrears. For a society, mass foreclosures appear as a result of correlated risks, when many owners default at the same time. Not only are the frequency of foreclosures multiplied, but the characteristics of the repossessed properties and the families involved seem to change. Since 1979, Denmark has been through nearly three housing market cycles. The first two downturns, 1979-1983, and 1987-1993, resulted in mass foreclosures with more than 10,000 houses and flats being repossessed annually. The price drop from the housing market peak in 2006-7 was twice as fast as in the former housing market downturn but only took 2/3 of that fall, before house prices stabilized in 2009. The number of foreclosures has grown but remains far below the former mass foreclosure level. Obviously the low interest regime from the autumn of 2008 has worked. Moreover the Danish owner-occupiers’ interest expenditures had been reduced significantly since 1993. In the meantime, the interest rate risk at mortgage borrowing has changed character. Until around 2000, fixed interest mortgages dominated but now 69% of Danish mortgages are adjustable rate mortgages. Formerly falling interest rates could release foreclosures. The possibility for a new mass foreclosure is worrying, when monetary authorities return to more ‘normal’ interest rates over the coming years. In addition, half of all outstanding mortgage loans are interest-only mortgages and as their interest-only period lasts 10 years, these borrowers will experience some automatic payment additions from 2013 onwards, and some of them might meet higher interest rates when remortgaging.

Branding is an important aspect in marketing because consumers are attracted to brands with values which are congruent to their own values. It is the ìunique added valuesî of a place brand that give places their distinctive personalities. These values are derived from all aspects of the environment, and will function as a brand regardless of whether or not it is managed as a brand. Place brand meaning also gives residents a sense of identity within society. Skinner and Kubacki (2007) suggests that ìthere is a growing body of research which identifies the need to investigate brand from a multi-stakeholder perspectiveî. In this study, we examine the elements which communicate a place brand from the perspective of residents and estate agents located in two affluent residential areas located close to Aucklandís CBD. A telephone survey of 561 residents from these two suburbs in addition to a content analysis of 2968 E-advertisements and interviews with estate agents provide the data to examine the residentsí and estate agents perception of the personality of their suburb.

We study property investment decision-making from a behavioural perspective on the very micro level. We do this by analysing an extraordinary large real estate transaction that took place in the Swedish property market 2008. In an open-bid transaction the properties of the corporation Vasakronan AB was sold for SEK 41.1 billion (equal to some EUR 4.4 billion). By applying a qualitative empirical approach we are able to obtain a deep understanding of the processes of data-collection, property and market analysis, securing of financing and investment decision-making that takes place within real estate companies as they produce a bid for the portfolio offered. Our investigation is a case study, but the scale and complexity of the transaction secure it contains all, or most, critical moments in a general property investment decision-making process. By so doing, we approach the investment property market in a way that is so far under-researched. Managers in both the purchasing company and the company with the second highest bid were interviewed. Interviews were carried out one person at a time. The interviewees were encouraged to speak freely most of the time, but we also supplied an interview guide with a number of themes as well as certain specific questions. The interviews are transcribed. The results, along with citations, are reported under headings that correspond to the main sub-processes of the investment decision-making. Detailed information about this remarkable transaction itself is revealed, but general insights are also gained about certain important market institutions rarely revealed by official records and reports from the players and authorities in the property market. Findings of the study are put in perspective by relating to normative property investment textbooks as well as earlier empirical surveys of investment behaviour in the property market.

We study property investment decision-making from a behavioural perspective on the very micro level. We do this by analysing an extraordinary large real estate transaction that took place in the Swedish property market 2008. In an open-bid transaction the properties of the corporation Vasakronan AB was sold for SEK 41.1 billion (equal to some EUR 4.4 billion). By applying a qualitative empirical approach we are able to obtain a deep understanding of the processes of data-collection, property and market analysis, securing of financing and investment decision-making that takes place within real estate companies as they produce a bid for the portfolio offered. Our investigation is a case study, but the scale and complexity of the transaction secure it contains all, or most, critical moments in a general property investment decision-making process. By so doing, we approach the investment property market in a way that is so far under-researched. Managers in both the purchasing company and the company with the second highest bid were interviewed. Interviews were carried out one person at a time. The interviewees were encouraged to speak freely most of the time, but we also supplied an interview guide with a number of themes as well as certain specific questions. The interviews are transcribed. The results, along with citations, are reported under headings that correspond to the main sub-processes of the investment decision-making. Detailed information about this remarkable transaction itself is revealed, but general insights are also gained about certain important market institutions rarely revealed by official records and reports from the players and authorities in the property market. Findings of the study are put in perspective by relating to normative property investment textbooks as well as earlier empirical surveys of investment behaviour in the property market.

Every year natural hazards cause damages to the building stock amounting to millions or even billions of Euros in Germany. The accelerating climate change involves an increasing number of extreme weather events with adherent additional issues. These extreme weather events lead to restrictions of usability and ascending running costs as a result of adjusted insurance costs. Therefore an efficient risk management system requires profound knowledge on potential natural risks under present and future climate conditions. The actors of the housing and property industry suffer by a lack of solid information on identification, analysis and assessment of climatic risks. Taking this additional information into account is of immense importance not only for their investment decisions but also for the insurance companies and regional planning authorities. This paper presents an approach of a climate impact risk assessment for the property market. The research comprehends an intensive evaluation of existing tools on risk assessment, insurance data and projections from climate models. The majority of existing risk assessment tools is accounting potential losses of a single climate impact and on a spatially highly aggregated level. By contrast, this paper contributes a multi-hazard risk approach on the property level. The analysis of potential risks combines separate methodologies for estimating the local hazard and building vulnerability (building-specific damage functions) in order to identify the monetary damage for each climate impact.

Financial and real estate crises and “the new way of working” reduce the need for office space, and office markets become replacement markets without a quantitative need for new office buildings: New buildings drive out bad buildings. In the Netherlands, currently 15% of the office space is vacant, of which 60% is regarded structurally vacant, meaning vacancy of the same square meters for three or more consecutive years, without perspective of future tenancy. The Amsterdam office market comprises 7 million m2 office space, of which 18% is vacant. Due to the on-going construction of new buildings and that only a small amount of buildings are demolished or otherwise taken off the market, the vacancy is expected to continue to increase. When relocating, organisations consider buildings and locations within geographically defined markets. Though location characteristics are important, eventually building characteristics play an important role. Organisations prefer office buildings that facilitate their main processes and support their corporate image. This paper presents results of studies on the association between structural vacancy and the characteristics of office buildings and locations. The revealed “˜veto’ preferences of office organisations were analysed by relating structural vacancy to property characteristics. The physical characteristics of 200 office properties were studied using logistic regression analyses to determine if a relationship exists between physical property characteristics and structural vacancy. Understanding office user preferences is important to understand movements within office markets. This paper studies the changes in office user accommodation preferences by studying the changes in structural vacancy over a time span of 10 years ““ from 2001 to 2011. The results of this study reveal movements in the Amsterdam office market and shows which office locations and buildings involve the highest risk in the current market situation.

Over the past two decades, the sustainability of buildings has grown in importance as part of a strategy of carbon reduction. However, the impetus for change has created a significant gap between the environmental performance of existing and newly built stock. New stock meets stringent building standards and, in many cases, has to meet rigorous standards for environmental certification. Without substantial refurbishment, the performance of existing stock can only be improved by behavioural changes in the way buildings are used. Yet it is clear that relatively modest investments by building owners can make a significant difference to the carbon footprint of an existing building. This may still fall some way short of a new build, but is significant nevertheless. For owner occupied space, the rationale for investment is clear, but for leased space there is a dilemma. The tenant is unwilling or unable to invest in the fabric of a building, albeit to his advantage the landlord is unwilling to invest in the fabric of the building to reduce the tenants operational costs. This is the Elephant in the room. One might expect that, given the greater economic utility offered by the reduced operating costs post such an investment, the rent paid for the space would be higher. This may well be the case over time, but there is insufficient evidence yet to persuade building owners to invest. Yet if they donít invest there will be no benefit! One way round this impasse is to share the benefits that accrue between landlord and tenant by establishing a jointly owned company that buys utilities on behalf of the building the ESCO model. This paper: ï looks at examples of the ESCO and MUSCO in action; ï Models the impact of an ESCO on different types of building; and Establishes the likely returns to landlords and tenants.

Over the past two decades, the sustainability of buildings has grown in importance as part of a strategy of carbon reduction. However, the impetus for change has created a significant gap between the environmental performance of existing and newly built stock. New stock meets stringent building standards and, in many cases, has to meet rigorous standards for environmental certification. Without substantial refurbishment, the performance of existing stock can only be improved by behavioural changes in the way buildings are used. Yet it is clear that relatively modest investments by building owners can make a significant difference to the carbon footprint of an existing building. This may still fall some way short of a new build, but is significant nevertheless. For owner occupied space, the rationale for investment is clear, but for leased space there is a dilemma. The tenant is unwilling or unable to invest in the fabric of a building, albeit to his advantage the landlord is unwilling to invest in the fabric of the building to reduce the tenants operational costs. This is the Elephant in the room. One might expect that, given the greater economic utility offered by the reduced operating costs post such an investment, the rent paid for the space would be higher. This may well be the case over time, but there is insufficient evidence yet to persuade building owners to invest. Yet if they don’t invest there will be no benefit! One way round this impasse is to share the benefits that accrue between landlord and tenant by establishing a jointly owned company that buys utilities on behalf of the building the ESCO model. This paper: • looks at examples of the ESCO and MUSCO in action; • Models the impact of an ESCO on different types of building; and Establishes the likely returns to landlords and tenants.

Amidst ongoing economic austerity, the UK government faces a significant challenge to fund major infrastructure projects. In many areas, market based solutions are not possible due to the scale of infrastructure required, at a time when land values are declining and occupier rents and yields remain uncertain. In order to create the conditions for growth, intervention by the public sector is considered an essential part of the solution. Tax Incremental Financing (TIF) is seen as a possible funding mechanism and is currently being promoted through parliament as part of the Local Government Finance Bill 2012. TIF is not a new concept having been introduced in the US in the 1950ís and there is a significant evidence base to inform current thinking. Based on research funded by the RICS, this paper critically examines the TIF models that are operational in the US to identify lessons that can be learned prior to possible adoption in the UK. The paper considers issues over designation, legislation, implementation and proliferation as well as the variety of risk sharing schemes adopted and the methodology used to measure performance. Using a case study approach, the research considers the key issues surrounding the introduction of pilot TIF schemes in Scotland and in Battersea, London and responds to the implementation process promoted by the UK government. The paper provides guidance on the key ingredients for a successful TIF and makes recommendations on the way forward.

The fundamental transformation of housing sector (and the rental housing sector in particular) and housing policies that took place in the last 20 years in the Central Europe has been realized despite the fact that this agenda did not belong among the priorities of public policies. Nevertheless the availability of housing and housing conditions was not profoundly augmented and it is less favorable than in Western Europe. Many incentives and legal instruments approved by public authorities as well as the created institutions in Slovak Republic reflected the reality of emerging real estate markets, however the growing maturity of the housing markets, decreased their efficiency. In addition, nowadays it became clear that the development of housing sector poorly responds to current requirements of the growing economies, particularly in terms of creating conditions for labor mobility, social cohesion etc. . In this context it is particularly noticeable lagging development of rental housing sector. These facts are presented by the statistical figures and they represent the challenges for the future development of rental sector. The paper also draws attention to the alternative rental housing policies that have been adopted in transition Central European countries and in Austria. At the end of the paper the recommendation for the development of the rental housing sector in Slovakia in the broader Central European context in post-crises period are formulated.

The fundamental transformation of housing sector (and the rental housing sector in particular) and housing policies that took place in the last 20 years in the Central Europe has been realized despite the fact that this agenda did not belong among the priorities of public policies. Nevertheless the availability of housing and housing conditions was not profoundly augmented and it is less favorable than in Western Europe. Many incentives and legal instruments approved by public authorities as well as the created institutions in Slovak Republic reflected the reality of emerging real estate markets, however the growing maturity of the housing markets, decreased their efficiency. In addition, nowadays it became clear that the development of housing sector poorly responds to current requirements of the growing economies, particularly in terms of creating conditions for labor mobility, social cohesion etc. . In this context it is particularly noticeable lagging development of rental housing sector. These facts are presented by the statistical figures and they represent the challenges for the future development of rental sector. The paper also draws attention to the alternative rental housing policies that have been adopted in transition Central European countries and in Austria. At the end of the paper the recommendation for the development of the rental housing sector in Slovakia in the broader Central European context in post-crises period are formulated.

This paper examines the evolution of the commercial property investment market over the last thirty years. The empirical core of this paper will quantify the changing nature of liquidity and transactions activity in the commercial property investment market in the UK since 1981 based on the IPD database. It will disaggregate these time series by property type and region. The basic empirical analysis will provide a base for a twofold appraisal of property investment and its pricing. First, there will be a discussion of what the changing nature of liquidity and transactions activity means for the role of property as an investment class over this period. Second, the implications of variations in transaction activity for valuation will be assessed, in particular during cyclical downturns. Finally some general conclusions will be drawn.

Analysis of the condition of Belarusian and European real estate education practices shows that cardinal problems in this sphere are: the absence of unity in understanding of general and special features of the real estate specialists training in different areas, the differences in understanding of the necessary level of training, the absence of unity in the content of the training programme in different areas of the professional activity in the real estate market. This problem can be solved by the way of creating International Educational Clusters. In clusters the best experience of different countries and universities can be integrated. In Belarusian State Technological Univestity and Vilnius Technical Gediminas University has being working out the educational distance learning programme for Real Estate Management specialization. Cluster approach was realized in the process of realization of the programme. It was integrated not only international experience of the best professors of the universities but the best practitioners of the countries were involved in the programme. Belarusian University works in cooperation with Republican Unitary Enterprise ìInstitute of Real Estate and Appraisalîù, National Cadastral Agency, Scientific Unitary Enterprise ìBelniczemîù within the framework of educational scientific industrial centre created at the university, acquire the knowledge in the sphere of economics, administration, finances, investment, land and forest cadastre, real estate market analysis, individual and mass appraisal, leasing, management in operational and investment property, appraisal and business administration. In August 2010 International summer school ìEconomics of real estate and valuationîù was organized in English in BSTU at the expense of Central European Initiative (CEI), the purpose of which was the professional development of the department teachers and the employees of Republican Unitary Enterprise ìInstitute of Real Estate and Appraisalî. The Belarusian-Lithuanian experience shows the main advantages of international integration and cooperation with practitioners within cluster and network of universities.

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has taken on increased significance in the property sector in recent years, reflecting the global focus on sustainability. This has included all of the dimensions of CSR, including environment, social and governance (ESG) issues, with property companies taking a strong leadership role in the area of implementing CSR practices. The key ongoing issue is whether these CSR practices significantly influence property company performance. Using the ESG factors in the ASSET4 database, REITs and property companies are assessed on whether these CSR practices are key factors influencing their performance in addition to the standard financial factors influencing performance (eg: market cap, BMV etc). This is assessed for REITs and property companies in Europe, US and Asia-Pacific over 2007-2011. The strategic implications for the ongoing implementation of CSR practices by REITs and property companies are also assessed.

The 22 February 2011 Canterbury earthquake had a devastating impact on Christchurch property with significant damage caused to land and buildings. As at November 2011, around 530 buildings have either been demolished or identified to be demolished in central Christchurch. In addition, around 140 buildings have either been partially demolished or identified to be partially demolished. The broad aims of the research were to (i) examine the nature and extent of the CBD office relocation, (ii) determine occupierís perceptions of the future: their location and space needs post the February earthquake, and the likelihood of relocating back to the CBD after the rebuild, and (iii) find out what occupiers see as the future of the CBD, and how they want this to look. To address these issues, an online survey was developed. Potential respondents were obtained from two sources: 275 suburban office occupier contact details obtained from a physical survey of office occupiers as of August 2011, and 368 contacts obtained from a business database held by CB Richard Ellis. With a 22% response rate, 55% of respondents were relocated CBD occupiers and 45% were existing suburban office occupiers. Results indicate that 66% of respondents have reduced their office size since the earthquakes. Half of businesses are paying less rent than before the earthquake, probably due to 45% of respondents being in poorer quality space. More than a quarter of relocated tenants have signed leases of one year or less, and 27% of businesses are now working out of residential premises. Of the businesses that relocated out of the CBD the biggest group (38%) want to return to the CBD into low-rise buildings of 3 floors or less (80%) that meet Earth Quake codes with good amenities and public transport. The speed of rebuild is important to respondents.

The 22 February 2011 Canterbury earthquake had a devastating impact on Christchurch property with significant damage caused to land and buildings. As at November 2011, around 530 buildings have either been demolished or identified to be demolished in central Christchurch. In addition, around 140 buildings have either been partially demolished or identified to be partially demolished. The broad aims of the research were to (i) examine the nature and extent of the CBD office relocation, (ii) determine occupier’s perceptions of the future: their location and space needs post the February earthquake, and the likelihood of relocating back to the CBD after the rebuild, and (iii) find out what occupiers see as the future of the CBD, and how they want this to look. To address these issues, an online survey was developed. Potential respondents were obtained from two sources: 275 suburban office occupier contact details obtained from a physical survey of office occupiers as of August 2011, and 368 contacts obtained from a business database held by CB Richard Ellis. With a 22% response rate, 55% of respondents were relocated CBD occupiers and 45% were existing suburban office occupiers. Results indicate that 66% of respondents have reduced their office size since the earthquakes. Half of businesses are paying less rent than before the earthquake, probably due to 45% of respondents being in poorer quality space. More than a quarter of relocated tenants have signed leases of one year or less, and 27% of businesses are now working out of residential premises. Of the businesses that relocated out of the CBD the biggest group (38%) want to return to the CBD into low-rise buildings of 3 floors or less (80%) that meet Earth Quake codes with good amenities and public transport. The speed of rebuild is important to respondents.

Climate change will have a considerable impact on the constructed environment. More specifically, policies and regulations made will impact on construction labour and have future implications for the delivery of climate adaptive property. This paper will examine the implications of climate change policy for the constructed environment labour market. It discusses whether policymakers and regulators are sufficiently informed and aware to accommodate the requirements of a low carbon workplace and whether the actors in the workplace can effectively implement the technical, regulatory and social reforms. The paper concludes that the current initiatives are individually suitable but government models are generally incomplete, lack cohesion and so do not deliver to the extent required by industry or the workplace actors. The labour market: Recent studies find that there are changes occurring in the labour market as a consequence of climate change (GHK Consulting 2007; ETUC, 2007; Worldwatch Institute, 2008). They also find that skills shortages are a binding constraint on the sector, and that it will continue to be difficult to source workers in the number and with the skills required. These changes are a reflection of the industryís moves to adapt to the new conditions, and the scaling up required to undertake the work that will reduce the energy consumed and the volume of emissions for which the constructed environment is responsible. Employersí organisations and trade unions play an active role in the provision of sector and labour market information to policy makers, advocating the collective interests of their constituents who otherwise do not have the opportunity for input on policy and regulatory matters. They also serve as the interface between business and labour interests, and policy makers and regulators. Employersí organisations and trade unions responsibilities include labour relations and social dialogue in respect of climate change. The paper finds these objectives overlap in some areas and therefore create the potential to infringe regulatory jurisdictions. Diligence is necessary to ensure that labour and management can remain focussed on the delivery of goods and services, while also undertaking the measures necessary to adapt to the requirements of a low carbon economy. The constructed environment: is a major contributor to economic growth and employment, providing 10% of global gross domestic product and employing 5-10% of total employm

It is widely accepted that REITs provide a range of important benefits to companies and investors; if listed on the main market of the stock exchange, they also provide all the other usual benefits associated with the equity market such as access to new investors/capital, tax transparency, access to property for minimal outlay, portfolio diversification, liquidity, and so on. In this paper, we take a global view of those aspects and investigate the role of listed REITs in global interdependence, business cycles and real estate markets. For this purpose, we extend the traditional Keynesian international macroeconomic model, presented by Branson and Buiter (1983), in two stages and formulate an example of a recent international economy with expanded securitization markets. Then we use it to investigate the impacts of the foreign interest rate hike, one of the many typical influences from foreign countries, on the business fluctuations of the home country; the impact of which we compare with those before the world wide starts of the listed REITs market. It is found that REITs, widely held by a variety of investors, may weaken the impact of a foreign influence and they may reduce the fluctuations of the value of the Gross Domestic Product. Given the familiar relationship between land prices and the GDP, this finding could also be seen as an insight into the future prospect of land prices, as well as the future real estate markets.

It is widely accepted that REITs provide a range of important benefits to companies and investors; if listed on the main market of the stock exchange, they also provide all the other usual benefits associated with the equity market such as access to new investors/capital, tax transparency, access to property for minimal outlay, portfolio diversification, liquidity, and so on. In this paper, we take a global view of those aspects and investigate the role of listed REITs in global interdependence, business cycles and real estate markets. For this purpose, we extend the traditional Keynesian international macroeconomic model, presented by Branson and Buiter (1983), in two stages and formulate an example of a recent international economy with expanded securitization markets. Then we use it to investigate the impacts of the foreign interest rate hike, one of the many typical influences from foreign countries, on the business fluctuations of the home country; the impact of which we compare with those before the world wide starts of the listed REITs market. It is found that REITs, widely held by a variety of investors, may weaken the impact of a foreign influence and they may reduce the fluctuations of the value of the Gross Domestic Product. Given the familiar relationship between land prices and the GDP, this finding could also be seen as an insight into the future prospect of land prices, as well as the future real estate markets.

Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) or, referring to real estate, Responsible Property Investment (RPI) are used by competing firms to create a differentiating attribute by integrating sustainability principles into their business strategy. Recent research on sustainability concentrates mainly on property-level profitability of green buildings along with the development and implementation of sustainable certifications. A second strand of emerging literature focuses on the company level by investigating the financial implications of corporate social responsibility agendas. The purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, it attempts to bridge the existing gap in the real estate literature between sustainability principles and investment analysis. Secondly, it seeks to analyse the effect of responsible investments within a multi-asset portfolio optimisation model. To this aim, listed real estate companies with an active ESG-Agenda will be identified and serve as the sustainable real estate asset class in our analysis. Using a number of optimisation techniques, it will be established empirically whether diversification benefits can be achieved by investing in high-ESGí companies. The results of the study highlight the potential role listed real estate companies with high ESG ratings can play in a multi-asset framework. ESG = Environmental, Social and Governance

The period of study, from 2000 to 2010, was a decade of turbulence in the American residential real estate market. The time period witnessed a sharp increase in property prices from 2000 to 2006 followed by a sharp decline after the 2007 sub-prime crisis in most markets in the US. The objective of this study is to estimate the value attributed to waterfront and golf course view amenities as they are revealed in the market through transactions over this time period. A related question that is examined is how the value of these amenities have shifted (implying buyers and sellers preferences) during different phases of the real estate cycle. A spatial hedonic price model estimates prices for 589 vacant lots that were sold in a lakefront community of Lake Keowee, South Carolina. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) is used to construct a number of spatial variables for the model. Results indicate that some economic relationships break down in the post-bubble frame suggesting that buyers become more discriminating in a post-bubble market. Specifically, two key measures break down: out of state buyers no longer pay a higher premium than in-state buyers and prices (and sales) for non-premium properties are negatively affected to a proportionately greater extent. This study illustrates the need for both spatial and temporal granularity in hedonic modeling, particularly if the study includes periods of speculative booms or crashes.

The living costs of households are not only set by the price of rent or mortgage but also by dwelling-related costs like energy and water. Especially the energy costs show an upward trend. The accumulation of housing costs and costs of energy occurs especially in the less insulated part of the housing stock, mostly the older dwellings. Often these dwellings are occupied by lower income households. If the situation remains unchanged, in the future some of them can hardly afford their housing costs. For those landlords that are responsible for the accommodation of lower income groups the steering on living costs (rent plus dwelling related costs) becomes more and more an issue. But also for the heavily mortgaged households in the owner occupied sector the accumulation of these costs can become problematic. This paper will explore which types of households in the rental as well as owner occupied sector will have affordability problems in the future as a consequence of the increase of dwelling related costs. The research is based on an extensive survey in the region of Eindhoven, in which the housing costs of several types of households are investigated in relation with the energy performance of different dwelling types. To look more closely to the housing costs of several households a lot of cost-items are listed (rent or mortgage, energy costs, cost for water, insurance, taxes, etc.). Another part of the questionnaire is used to get insight in the energy performance of their dwellings. This research gives not only understanding of the current housing costs of households. Moreover, it forms a good base to formulate some prognoses for the coming years. The main parameters in these prognoses are: - development of the energy costs; - energy-saving policy - development of the household incomes. By combining these prognoses with possible cost developments of energy, three types of scenarios are being formulated; a best case, basic case and worst case scenario. The paper ends with the way these prognoses and scenarios lay the foundations for a pro-active policy by the stakeholders involved.